Given that kids, 0-17, are nearly immune to COVID19 and not immune at all to dying in traffic accidents, why is it not nearly as shortsighted? How many more kids need to die in cars than from COVID before driving them around is shortsighted?
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Replying to @Deguello2034 @AlexBerenson
Are... are you serious? How long have you thought about this?
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Firstly, they are not nearly immune, catch the disease at 1/3rd rate, school is a huge vector, they spread the disease & there are long term problems, including potentially fatal inflammation that we're just discovering, finally it would spread to the family & economy
@Pravduh151 reply 1 retweet 0 likes -
They are far less susceptible to other diseases for which we don’t close schools.pic.twitter.com/g4w53qez4D
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Think about the epidemiology, the systems dynamics. Opening the schools despite the waves of the pandemic will cripple the economy and kill millions. Mainly not the children. THIS IS OBVIOUS
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𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 Retweeted Eric Feigl-Ding
You're not reading the graph correctly!
@Pravduh15 The point of this rather telling graph is that because of the reporting delay the deaths *appear* to drop off day by day as the system catches up. If you do the stats properly you incorporate this delay.https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1262510179167408130?s=20 …𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 added,
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Wow. No, the graph says that reporting delays make it appear that cases aren’t dropping off (the gray bars) while in fact they are if date of death is used. If you can’t get that right, it’s a waste of time talking to you.
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Dude, think about it for a second. How can a May 17th death be reported in the data if the reporting delay is many days?
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Deguello 2034 Retweeted Adam Altmejd
Deguello 2034 added,
Adam Altmejd @adamaltmejdThis plot tracks Covid-19 deaths in Sweden taking the reporting delay into account. Out of the 80 new deaths reported today (red), only 6 died within the last 24 hours. Code here: https://github.com/adamaltmejd/corona_stats …, feedback appreciated. pic.twitter.com/2o0FwvvW64Show this thread1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
You're not understanding your own sophisticated point, and have gotten it exactly wrong. Think about the implications of the fact that all reporting is delayed by some amount. You have to *quantify the delay* which is what the forecast is for. Gosh!pic.twitter.com/JSfxtnbloE
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Even with the backfill from delays, the forecast is lower than that from reporting date and BOTH are post-peak. They kept school for young kids open and weren’t ravaged and didn’t completely rank the economy.
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