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DanielleFong's profile
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Empire of the Future
Joined February 2008

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 17 May 2020

      Here's a modeling paper that I haven't seen discussed as often as I would have liked. (Disclosure: my co-author Natalie Dean is a co-author of that paper.) http://www.cidid.org/publications-1/2020/5/5/modeling-the-impact-of-social-distancing-testing-contact-tracing-and-household-quarantine-on-second-wave-scenarios-of-the-covid-19-epidemic …pic.twitter.com/xFOHSihzyu

      14 replies 151 retweets 405 likes
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    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 17 May 2020

      In short, the authors develop a stochastic SEIR model with multiple network layers with contact structure parameterized by cell phone data and census data. They use this framework to evaluate plans for lifting current stay-at-home orders and nonessential business closures.pic.twitter.com/NZ0TxoMhIl

      2 replies 10 retweets 93 likes
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    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 17 May 2020

      They find that with a staggered reopening, isolation of symptomatic cases is insufficient to prevent a large second wave that would overrun hospital capacity. Adding a fairly modest level of contact tracing and family-scale isolation brings the second wave under control.pic.twitter.com/Us3De6fPgG

      11 replies 73 retweets 174 likes
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    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 17 May 2020

      Tracing is far from absolute; they assume that 50% of symptomatic infections are identified and 40% of those patients' contacts are identified. This turns out to make enough difference to keep the second wave down, though not to quickly eradicate disease.

      4 replies 19 retweets 99 likes
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    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 17 May 2020

      Both the methods and results are broadly consistent with our own work in progress, using @RS_McGee's SEIRS+ framework https://github.com/ryansmcgee/seirsplus … (though their way of building the contact network from phone data is more sophisticated).

      2 replies 11 retweets 69 likes
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    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 17 May 2020

      Throughout, the authors assume relatively undemanding levels of testing. To me the paper suggests that contact tracing is a viable and—at least in the absence of truly massive-scale testing—probably necessary component of plans to reopen the economy prior to an effective vaccine.

      12 replies 30 retweets 137 likes
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    7. Greg Nelson‏ @GregNN 17 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      2/2 OTOH people won't just go back to normal life if orders lifted, which reduces spread. Have you seen any studies on contact tracing pre-emptive quarantine compliance in USA? I'd expect it to be pretty low, ie mirror the 20% scenario perhaps? @DanielleFong @endCOVID19

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
       🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 18 May 2020
      Replying to @GregNN @CT_Bergstrom @endCOVID19

      much less imho

      6:19 AM - 18 May 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Greg Nelson
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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