Back in late Jan/early Feb, when I was taking the outbreak seriously enough to buy canned goods, I registered a probability estimate with a friend. I said there was a 10% chance the outbreak would progress to the point where it would “significantly impact daily life.” 1/nhttps://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1247967288931897345 …
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Of course, whether an impact is “significant” or not is hard to measure. So I chose, as a specific line in the sand, whether “the majority of shoppers at the local Whole Foods would be wearing masks” at some point. 2/n
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Was 10% a good estimate? Should it have been higher? I’m not sure. One thing I didn’t foresee (that my friend saw more accurately) is how much the American public would resist wearing masks in public. 3/n
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Our lives were *totally upended* for *many weeks* before mask-wearing started to become normalized. And even now we have a ways to go on that front. 4/n
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In hindsight, the main thing I feel like I got “wrong” with this prediction wasn’t the low probability, but rather the sense for how the American public would react to an epidemic. 5/5
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(Sorry if this thread doesn’t have much of a point. I’m just doing a little reflection on which aspects of this I understood at which points in time. Would love to hear others’ data points as well.)
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As soon as I heard about the asymptomatic spread, and dug into the data, I made plans to flee the US (it took 3 days, Jan 27th)
I had spent a long time assessing the institutional strength of the USA (@maddow and @democracynow) and just did not have faith in the government.
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