What are the chances that the apparent amazing physical abilities seen in some UFOs are real and due to secretive human societies, such as militaries, research prototypes, or Bond-villain-types orgs?
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Replying to @robinhanson
My BFF favorite science fiction writer says 100% chance that the UFOs were some military capabilities that we don’t know we have.
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Replying to @sarah_cone @robinhanson
100% is a ridiculous level of confidence. You shouldn’t even believe your own eyes with 100% confidence
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up to a rounding error, you should believe your eyes at 100% confidence. not saying there isn't a hell of a lot in the rounding error.
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My eyes frequently tell me that this 2D screen I’m typing on can generate 3-dimensional objects, but that simply isn’t true
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the third dimension is in your mind.
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Replying to @DanielleFong @BoltzmannBody and
look the point isn't which is super true, truth is incredibly difficult to get access to the question is *what to believe* which is a question of tactics. if you don't believe in your eyes, mind, and instincts, you will have serious problems believe in the sense of acting upon
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Replying to @DanielleFong @BoltzmannBody and
but if I had to put a number on it I'd say I believe my eyes about 98% over other things. agree with the assessment of the SF writer that it's likely capabilities. have heard rumors from the top of supersonic drone capabilities from China and Mohave aerospace.
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You said “likely” That makes perfect sense. It’s the 100% certain that I think is stupid, that’s all
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tbf i am not the sf writer Sarah speaks of. I did vote >10%
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i voted 1-10%. they behave so bizarrely that i wouldn't go above 10% for any particular explanation until we have lots more footage and lots more serious analysis by experts. super interesting stuff.
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could just be cgi
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