I like Taleb's barbell. All-in in Feb when ppl in complete denial made sense, that denial wasn't durable. Now there's some durable denial, and long tail of sudden successful treatment discovery, to fuel animal spirits.
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Still exists an arg to have huge exposure in hope of early game-changing funding. At the same time, there's going to be more crises in the future, even worse ones. Not now or never. Always a long game. Hard to balance.
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Overnight algos and Asian/European markets do some pretty interesting stuff. Not to mention the fed and govt are essentially destroying shorts by fuelling incredible optimism. It’s not America we shouldn’t bet against but rather the blind optimism people have on America.
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Look at how much we rise on such low volume overnight and that momentum carries forward again on not great volume during the day.
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Eheheh...
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You’re not wrong to get puts. My concern is that their expiry is too soon. I’ve been getting 1800p /es for December expiry. Expensive but I believe they’ll make good money.This is especially problematic since you are playing spy rather than /es or even Spx which has longer hours
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