I know all the discussion is about a possible "2nd wave", but I've found this odd given that we haven't finished the first one. I would think quite possible that, nationally, we're in for a scenario of a long plateau. 1/10
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If we look at confirmed cases through time in the US, we see a plateau of ~30k confirmed cases per day for basically the entire month of April. This corresponds to a decrease of the effective reproduction number to ~1. Figure from
@cmmid_lshtm's https://epiforecasts.io/covid/ . 2/10pic.twitter.com/4SeiSAVGGU
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testing bottleneck is occam's razor, imho
12:27 PM - 1 May 2020
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