saw the following exchange on the TL
A: law of attraction works
B: sorry, survivorship bias, dangerous ideology
me: I don't see any disagreement here 
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let me see how quickly I can speedrun this: people have different concepts and assessments of risk, and different ideas about how much risk they think are willing to tolerate people also vary in terms of how effective they are at protecting themselves from negative consequences
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major variables: the birth lottery (1), your skill as a player (2), and circumstances beyond your control (3) – some of which can be anticipated to some degree, some of which cannot. Of the latter, some can be prepared for and others cannot... it gets very layered and recursive
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what I think is interesting is how much time & energy people spend on trying to convince each other of the relative "rightness" of the positions they hold. I believe it's possible to drop most of that behavior and come out net positive for it in terms of outcomes
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I have a pretty calibrated sense of how right I am about most things. I'm not trying to win arguments, I'm trying to learn. Sometimes I *forget* this because I accidentally end up surrounded by argument-win-seekers, and unconsciously start mimicking the game they're playing
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Replying to @visakanv
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 Retweeted 𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 added,
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 @DanielleFongThis is the key thing to discover about people, how right they are about things when they claim they are right about them.@paulg said this: "Robert Morris has a very unusual quality: he's never wrong. It might seem this would require you to be omniscient, but actually..." https://twitter.com/visakanv/status/1254813787535765504 … pic.twitter.com/UJIj2TfnuG1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong
my ex-boss was obsessive about this, and with each passing year I realize more and more how foundational that is
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it's really the key.
https://twitter.com/aroraharshita33/status/992211625821143040 …
see also first principles thinking, promoted by @elonmusk and @BoredElonMuskpic.twitter.com/ySQv1f0X9u
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