There are 4 scenarios with sufficient weight of likelihood to be worth planning for I think: 1. Hardened neoliberalism 2. Partial deglobalization 3. Permadistanced world 4. Collapse (defined as say 25-30% economic shrinkage and depopulation over the next 2 decades)
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The 4th one people might argue... there's prima facie no reason to expect a worse outcome than Spanish Flu, but on a double take (secunda facie?), there's a risk present here that wasn't present in 1917-19: the sheer complexity of modern society
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Replying to @vgr
it seemed obvious to me from the start that this was both a worse virus and it was a far worst situation to innovate our of, with our air travel and globally connected economy only our capacity to innovate is better, but this is largely theoretical because of dumbasses in charge
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