if true, this would be an amazing result – & suggestive of population-level immunity dynamics yet to be understood, or perhaps even named... perhaps, where moderate-but-not-full-distancing creates milder cases?https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html …
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may raise tough Q: if 1+ (eastern) US cities already 30-50% post-infection/presumed-immunity, & could (w/ available/improving care capacity) 'burn' to 60-85% at less cost-in-lives than so far, while other (western) cities still just 1-5%, which way does shared polity go?
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Replying to @gojomo
I don't think these numbers are likely. The serological data from Santa Clara is likely closer to the leading edge. Not sure though -- so much invisibility.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
but for NYC & points east: there's the NYC pregnancy-intake study showing 1-in-6 PCR(!) positives, & Chelsea MA survey showing 1-in-3 antibody-positive – both suggesting to me many northeast urban areas already 30%+ post-infection (even if west still in 1%-10% ranges)
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0-28 day incubation period, 3 week course of severe illness till lethality, long recovery, thousands of strains, reinfection possible, all these hide the numbers. best bet is to look at iceland data. they also have genetics. they do have 50% asymptomatic. thanos like...
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