The point, as @slatestarcodex makes very clearly in that article, is that when there's huge uncertainty & meta-uncertainty... focusing on predicting what will happen is a diversion from the real question:
What Does It Make Sense To Do While We Have This Uncertainty?
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What Does It Make Sense To Do While We Have This Uncertainty?
And *sometimes* the answer is "what we were doing before the question was even asked". But it's very risky to assume so!
And if saying "10% odds of pandemic are too low to take action", then what's NOT too low?1 reply 0 retweets 1 likeShow this thread -
Malcolm 🌎cean Retweeted Malcolm 🌎cean
Also, the answer (including the threshold at which it makes sense to change behavior at all) is different depending on who "we" is!https://twitter.com/Malcolm_Ocean/status/1248815398511878145 …
Malcolm 🌎cean added,
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US govt could've reasonably started developing drive-thru testing infrastructure on Dec 31st (even if estimating 1% chance of pandemic) on the basis that that would come in handy eventually even if it wasn't needed in 2020. Citizens didn't need to change behv then or even know.
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Another example, if experts figured on a 15% chance of a particular volcano erupting this month: - people living nearby

- governments nearby 


- people intending to vacation there 

- entrepreneurs 

- and most people far away, probably nothing
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if it were 95%, and a huge volcano, all the people nearby would certainly gtfo if they at all could, and the government might pay to safeguard these citizens. That probably doesn't make sense at 15%, but *something* makes sense. And how do we discern what that something is?
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One thing that seems to help stimulate this kind of thinking is Scenario Planning—an adaptation of some military methods. Thinking in advance what it might make sense to do under certain conditions can generate better actions to take in the present. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning …
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Better actions now could be:
convergently instrumental
(in any scenario, having invested in X helps)
preparation
(in scenario C, we're fucked *unless* we did Y 3wks earlier)
fat-tail disaster-avoidant
(scenario D would cost >$10T, currently P=10%, $10B NOW → P=5%)2 replies 1 retweet 2 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @Malcolm_Ocean
Have you guys read
@nntaleb's recent paper where he explains how this virus is an existential risk yet? Here is my take on it Asymptomatic spread + virus maintains its integrity + long incubation period + mutations = lethality & contagiousness can coevolve, unbounded lethality2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong @nntaleb
Haven't, no. Link? Couldn't find with a search. Seems to me it could indeed be very very catastrophic but unlikely to literally wipe out the human race (which is what I take "existential risk" to mean, following Bostrom) (Not intending to undermine point; just clarifying terms)pic.twitter.com/aUTdGsKz5P
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check http://academia.edu
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