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DanielleFong's profile
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
@DanielleFong

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𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪

@DanielleFong

𝔞 𝔟𝔩𝔞𝕤𝔱 𝔣𝔯𝔬𝔪 𝔱𝕙𝖊 𝔭𝔞𝔰𝔱 𝕝𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕝 𝟛𝟚 𝕤𝕠𝕣𝕔𝕖𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤, 𝕙𝕒𝕣𝕕𝕔𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕞𝕠𝕕𝕖

.earth  🌎
daniellefong.com
Joined February 2008

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    1. Malcolm  🌎cean‏ @Malcolm_Ocean Apr 19
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      The point, as @slatestarcodex makes very clearly in that article, is that when there's huge uncertainty & meta-uncertainty... focusing on predicting what will happen is a diversion from the real question: ❓What Does It Make Sense To Do While We Have This Uncertainty?

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    2. Malcolm  🌎cean‏ @Malcolm_Ocean Apr 19
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      ❓What Does It Make Sense To Do While We Have This Uncertainty? And *sometimes* the answer is "what we were doing before the question was even asked". But it's very risky to assume so! And if saying "10% odds of pandemic are too low to take action", then what's NOT too low?

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    3. Malcolm  🌎cean‏ @Malcolm_Ocean Apr 19
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      Malcolm  🌎cean Retweeted Malcolm  🌎cean

      Also, the answer (including the threshold at which it makes sense to change behavior at all) is different depending on who "we" is!https://twitter.com/Malcolm_Ocean/status/1248815398511878145 …

      Malcolm  🌎cean added,

      Malcolm  🌎cean @Malcolm_Ocean
      "Here's what we need to do!" ...wait, who is "we"? https://twitter.com/s_r_constantin/status/1248635801354653700 …
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    4. Malcolm  🌎cean‏ @Malcolm_Ocean Apr 19
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      US govt could've reasonably started developing drive-thru testing infrastructure on Dec 31st (even if estimating 1% chance of pandemic) on the basis that that would come in handy eventually even if it wasn't needed in 2020. Citizens didn't need to change behv then or even know.

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    5. Malcolm  🌎cean‏ @Malcolm_Ocean Apr 19
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      Another example, if experts figured on a 15% chance of a particular volcano erupting this month: - people living nearby 😷🛫 - governments nearby 🤔🧐🤝🧑‍🚒 - people intending to vacation there 😬👀🛬 - entrepreneurs 💡🤔🚌 - and most people far away, probably nothing 🤷‍♀️

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    6. Malcolm  🌎cean‏ @Malcolm_Ocean Apr 19
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      if it were 95%, and a huge volcano, all the people nearby would certainly gtfo if they at all could, and the government might pay to safeguard these citizens. That probably doesn't make sense at 15%, but *something* makes sense. And how do we discern what that something is?

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    7. Malcolm  🌎cean‏ @Malcolm_Ocean Apr 19
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      One thing that seems to help stimulate this kind of thinking is Scenario Planning—an adaptation of some military methods. Thinking in advance what it might make sense to do under certain conditions can generate better actions to take in the present. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning …

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    8. Malcolm  🌎cean‏ @Malcolm_Ocean Apr 19
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      Better actions now could be: 🟢 convergently instrumental (in any scenario, having invested in X helps) 🟠 preparation (in scenario C, we're fucked *unless* we did Y 3wks earlier) 🔴 fat-tail disaster-avoidant (scenario D would cost >$10T, currently P=10%, $10B NOW → P=5%)

      2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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    9. 𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪‏ @DanielleFong Apr 19
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      Replying to @Malcolm_Ocean

      Have you guys read @nntaleb's recent paper where he explains how this virus is an existential risk yet? Here is my take on it Asymptomatic spread + virus maintains its integrity + long incubation period + mutations = lethality & contagiousness can coevolve, unbounded lethality

      2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
    10. yu fu‏ @yufu2 Apr 19
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      Replying to @DanielleFong @Malcolm_Ocean @nntaleb

      It will be bounded by the number of people with ability to achieve immunity

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪‏ @DanielleFong Apr 19
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      Replying to @yufu2 @Malcolm_Ocean @nntaleb

      possibly yes, depends on the possible mutations though. it crosses species

      1:32 PM - 19 Apr 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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