Great article on how media responded to experts re covid. Prediction becomes weird in a context where you have partial control, because you simultaneously want to be wrong while having people take you seriously.https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/ …
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Haven't, no. Link? Couldn't find with a search. Seems to me it could indeed be very very catastrophic but unlikely to literally wipe out the human race (which is what I take "existential risk" to mean, following Bostrom) (Not intending to undermine point; just clarifying terms)pic.twitter.com/aUTdGsKz5P
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It will be bounded by the number of people with ability to achieve immunity
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possibly yes, depends on the possible mutations though. it crosses species
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What Does It Make Sense To Do While We Have This Uncertainty?
- governments nearby 


- people intending to vacation there 

- entrepreneurs 
- and most people far away, probably nothing 
convergently instrumental
(in any scenario, having invested in X helps)
preparation
(in scenario C, we're fucked *unless* we did Y 3wks earlier)
fat-tail disaster-avoidant
(scenario D would cost >$10T, currently P=10%, $10B NOW → P=5%)