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Joined February 2008

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    1. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      Great article on how media responded to experts re covid. Prediction becomes weird in a context where you have partial control, because you simultaneously want to be wrong while having people take you seriously. https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/ …

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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    2. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      One approach might be to specify conditionals: "conditional on [these decisions/behaviors by govt & citizens], I predict X hundred thousand deaths; conditional on [alternative], I predict X hundred deaths" +"former scenario looks more likely, but I obviously ADVISE the latter"

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    3. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      The point, as @slatestarcodex makes very clearly in that article, is that when there's huge uncertainty & meta-uncertainty... focusing on predicting what will happen is a diversion from the real question: ❓What Does It Make Sense To Do While We Have This Uncertainty?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    4. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      ❓What Does It Make Sense To Do While We Have This Uncertainty? And *sometimes* the answer is "what we were doing before the question was even asked". But it's very risky to assume so! And if saying "10% odds of pandemic are too low to take action", then what's NOT too low?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    5. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC Retweeted Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC

      Also, the answer (including the threshold at which it makes sense to change behavior at all) is different depending on who "we" is!https://twitter.com/Malcolm_Ocean/status/1248815398511878145 …

      Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC added,

      Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC @Malcolm_Ocean
      "Here's what we need to do!" ...wait, who is "we"? https://twitter.com/s_r_constantin/status/1248635801354653700 …
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      US govt could've reasonably started developing drive-thru testing infrastructure on Dec 31st (even if estimating 1% chance of pandemic) on the basis that that would come in handy eventually even if it wasn't needed in 2020. Citizens didn't need to change behv then or even know.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    7. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      Another example, if experts figured on a 15% chance of a particular volcano erupting this month: - people living nearby 😷🛫 - governments nearby 🤔🧐🤝🧑‍🚒 - people intending to vacation there 😬👀🛬 - entrepreneurs 💡🤔🚌 - and most people far away, probably nothing 🤷‍♀️

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    8. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      if it were 95%, and a huge volcano, all the people nearby would certainly gtfo if they at all could, and the government might pay to safeguard these citizens. That probably doesn't make sense at 15%, but *something* makes sense. And how do we discern what that something is?

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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    9. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      One thing that seems to help stimulate this kind of thinking is Scenario Planning—an adaptation of some military methods. Thinking in advance what it might make sense to do under certain conditions can generate better actions to take in the present.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    10. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020

      Better actions now could be: 🟢 convergently instrumental (in any scenario, having invested in X helps) 🟠 preparation (in scenario C, we're fucked *unless* we did Y 3wks earlier) 🔴 fat-tail disaster-avoidant (scenario D would cost >$10T, currently P=10%, $10B NOW → P=5%)

      2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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       🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Malcolm_Ocean

      Have you guys read @nntaleb's recent paper where he explains how this virus is an existential risk yet? Here is my take on it Asymptomatic spread + virus maintains its integrity + long incubation period + mutations = lethality & contagiousness can coevolve, unbounded lethality

      11:42 AM - 19 Apr 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 7 Likes
      • Snigdha Roy R.P. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC 🤷🏻‍♀️ Martial Frank Em 𝚠𝚒𝚕𝚍𝚏𝚕𝚘𝚠𝚎𝚛 🌺
      2 replies 3 retweets 7 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. yu fu‏ @yufu2 19 Apr 2020
          Replying to @DanielleFong @Malcolm_Ocean @nntaleb

          It will be bounded by the number of people with ability to achieve immunity

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 19 Apr 2020
          Replying to @yufu2 @Malcolm_Ocean @nntaleb

          possibly yes, depends on the possible mutations though. it crosses species

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Malcolm Ocean is in Victoria, BC‏ @Malcolm_Ocean 19 Apr 2020
          Replying to @DanielleFong @nntaleb

          Haven't, no. Link? Couldn't find with a search. Seems to me it could indeed be very very catastrophic but unlikely to literally wipe out the human race (which is what I take "existential risk" to mean, following Bostrom) (Not intending to undermine point; just clarifying terms)pic.twitter.com/aUTdGsKz5P

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3.  🤷🏻‍♀️‏ @DanielleFong 19 Apr 2020
          Replying to @Malcolm_Ocean @nntaleb

          check http://academia.edu 

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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