1) We are at a critical juncture for the market. The events of the next month will shape the next year. In 20 years of investing, I've never seen such high sensitivity to initial conditions and such a wide range of outcomes with no real precedent to help guide thinking.
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Replying to @GavinSBaker1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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Replying to @nosilverv @GavinSBaker
yeah i don't know why people are finding this hard the market response is linear statistical filters: this is like quantum mechanics the direction is down, but the options are direction agnostic largely, this implies that super exponential growth from the Kelly criterion works
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Replying to @DanielleFong @nosilverv
It is funny. People always say the SPREAD OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IS LARGE. But what they don't get is that the situation can't make the outcome better! Only worse! Thus it has to be biased downward. The only outcomes are bad (market crash) or terrible (hyperinflation).
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I am trying to build the future as we fall. It's possible!
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