1) We are at a critical juncture for the market. The events of the next month will shape the next year. In 20 years of investing, I've never seen such high sensitivity to initial conditions and such a wide range of outcomes with no real precedent to help guide thinking.
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Replying to @GavinSBaker1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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Replying to @nosilverv @GavinSBaker
yeah i don't know why people are finding this hard the market response is linear statistical filters: this is like quantum mechanics the direction is down, but the options are direction agnostic largely, this implies that super exponential growth from the Kelly criterion works
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𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 Retweeted michael vassar
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 added,
michael vassar @HiFromMichaelV
In so far as there are still fools betting on greater fools and sneering at people who don't go along with this sort of fraud, and in so far as those people are still moving the market, Kelly betting against them has a real expected return much larger than the whole real economy!
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10:36 AM - 9 Apr 2020
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