people are getting overly optimistic just because the third derivative of number of cases is decreasing
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Yeah. My model continues to rise for World and US. I don't see it. My model is simplistic (polynomial curve of dead). And CDC/WHO "could" have better models. But I have not seen anything from either organization yet.
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This is the US graph.If u see,we might be slowing down. Also I feel like markets care more about states like WA, CA, NY-this has been my impression even based on the news coverage about this, could be misguided. Another reason for thinking is this : https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~jsteinhardt/publications/R0_CA_NY.pdf …pic.twitter.com/ZjDUJd4sRK
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