great Questions! @billgates @gatesfoundation yo do you have any resources to answer this? hive mind, maybe do some research? comments below. i want to see if it needs to be amped up or not.https://twitter.com/GregNN/status/1247930840174100481 …
shit, you are probably right. i just saw @DrEricDing’s new post of the numbers from the CDC reanalysis. R0 of 5.7?? Fuck.
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R0 we chose with mitigation. With social distancing & stay at home King County, WA has R0 of around 1.4 with the 6-7 day serial interval, with "essential" services still operating.https://www.geekwire.com/2020/king-county-confirms-social-distancing-slowing-coronavirus-spread/ …
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And essential services include construction, many other econ activity. But Seattle / King county also has huge remote-capable workforce, a kind of best case IMO. Still r0 not beneath 1 tho.
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This is what I fear also, no one is thinking enough on the order, no media articles. Academics don't think about production issues, they don't produce. Here's a list of tests, can ask them somehow production capacity: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00010-2 …
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Here's report of 3.5 mil antibody tests made in China to UK thrown out b/c quality issues:https://www.newsweek.com/uk-says-millions-coronavirus-test-kits-bought-china-unreliable-most-patients-1496506 …
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AFAICT, all countries thinking only about themselves. No one thinking at global scale. So I think big countries thinking they can barely cover themselves. Frankly I've been hoping the fringe theories of spread since Nov and much lower death rate/asympt are right, but I doubt it.
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