The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemichttps://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993 …
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Replying to @jessefelder @DanielleFong
I don’t get why 6,144 in “0.15 x 6,144 total cases = 921” - it was 61440 just few paragraphs above.
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @Dont48 @jessefelder
it looks like this is just the simple math of 15% of cases requiring a hospital HOWEVER reading this more carefully I've decided that this article is better for a sophisticated reader https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf …pic.twitter.com/tUd4WEkBNN
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
this group seems to be the only one who can really get the mathematical modelling of the confidence intervals right. it's quite tricky but not impossible
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