Mea culpa thread! What were you personally wrong about w/r/t Covid-19? How did you change your mind afterwards? I'll go first: I asked the wrong question here. Afterwards I greatly narrowed my belief about which prices always know better than I do.https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1229529150098046976 …
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Replying to @ESYudkowsky
1. I took too much comfort in the slowdown and containment in China, it didn't really occur to me that other places would ignite and completely fail to contain.
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Replying to @ArthurB @ESYudkowsky
2. Despite staring at the number and the projections and seeing the disaster coming, the general complacency of even informed, smart people, given an explicit prompt, made me shrink my estimates too much.
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Replying to @ArthurB @ESYudkowsky
3. I sold stocks, not immediately but not too late either, but should have actively taken aggressive short positions. It wasn't clear to me is the market knew and didn't care or had no idea. I still don't know if the market understands. This is why you need prediction markets.
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Replying to @ArthurB @ESYudkowsky
Tristan Homsi Retweeted 𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
This actually makes me pretty bearish on prediction markets. SPX puts were a great prediction market for USA's failure at containing this. There were millions of dollars lying around, and almost no one picked them up (
@DanielleFong excepted...)https://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1238229118807937027 …Tristan Homsi added,
1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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