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DanielleFong's profile
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
@DanielleFong

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𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪

@DanielleFong

𝔞 𝔟𝔩𝔞𝕤𝔱 𝔣𝔯𝔬𝔪 𝔱𝕙𝖊 𝔭𝔞𝔰𝔱 𝕝𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕝 𝟛𝟚 𝕤𝕠𝕣𝕔𝕖𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤, 𝕙𝕒𝕣𝕕𝕔𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕞𝕠𝕕𝕖

.earth  🌎
daniellefong.com
Joined February 2008

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    1. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch Mar 10
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      It is unsustainable (effort grows with epidemic size). We need measures that while painful for all will slow social contact - cancelling public gatherings, paid sick leave, working from home, and the like. Social distancing is the general name for these interventions.

      20 replies 472 retweets 1,406 likes
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    2. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch Mar 10
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      And we need to stop feeling sheepish about it and just realize that some places (Italy, Iran) are in crisis, and some are very likely in the days before crisis, a crisis that will be less bad if we slow down the virus. #flattenthecurve to reduce peak demand on health care

      18 replies 371 retweets 1,378 likes
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    3. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch Mar 10
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      The 1918 analogies have been discussed a lot and are correect. Flattening the curve reduces health care load, delays risk for everyone, and reduces total epidemic size. Here are some data from a paper we submitted to @medrxivpreprint and is awaiting clearance. Led by @ruoranepi

      12 replies 269 retweets 906 likes
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    4. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch Mar 10
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      with @megan_b_murray @cmyeaton Eric Toner, Qi Tan. The link to full document will be on last tweet as I want to replace it with a more permanent one.

      1 reply 51 retweets 267 likes
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    5. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch Mar 10
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      We looked at the epidemics in Wuhan and Guangzho and their ICU and hospital bed use vs US capacity. Summary: Wuhan's peak critical case load per capita was equal to the total number of ICU beds per capita in the US -- a similar experience to Wuhan would fill our ICU with COVID

      14 replies 349 retweets 747 likes
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    6. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch Mar 10
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      Here's the graph. Gray lines show US capacities for ICU and hospital bedspic.twitter.com/z8HBPXk6DT

      10 replies 290 retweets 573 likes
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    7. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch Mar 10
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      Guangzho intervened much earlier in their epidemic, and had a MUCH smaller peak demand. Note different scalepic.twitter.com/51vtTDbQNr

      9 replies 197 retweets 512 likes
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    8. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch Mar 10
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      My takeaways: 1) early intervention spares the health system from intense stress -- like Philly vs. St. Louis. 2) Early intervention means before it feels bad. Guangzho intervened when they had 7 confirmed cases & 0 deaths. Wuhan's came when they had 495 confirmed cases, 23 dead

      23 replies 512 retweets 1,190 likes
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    9. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch Mar 10
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      3) We will not intervene as intensely as China, making speed even nore important. 4) Slowing transmission did not immediately relieve health care burden. People take a long time (weeks) to get really sick, so the peak burden trailed peak transmission by weeks esp in Wuhan

      12 replies 248 retweets 767 likes
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    10. Richard H. Ebright‏ @R_H_Ebright Mar 10
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      Replying to @mlipsitch

      Why start with self-defeating assumption that USA cannot, even in principle, intervene as competently as China (or Taiwan or Singapore or South Korea)? Not resisting because one assumes one will be defeated, endures one will be defeated.

      9 replies 3 retweets 18 likes
      𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪‏ @DanielleFong Mar 12
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      Replying to @R_H_Ebright @mlipsitch

      The US was being made artificially stupid. We have had a big wake up now.

      1:45 PM - 12 Mar 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Kai R ɐɯıs uǝq
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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