COVID-19 is an interesting example of Peter Thiel's determinate/indeterminate optimism/pessimism framework. For reference, see Section E, Part II:https://blakemasters.com/post/23435743973/peter-thiels-cs183-startup-class-13-notes …
-
Show this thread
-
A global pandemic is not intrinsically a disaster. Except for China being first and getting caught off-guard, every other country had at least a month's worth of advance notice. It's more straightforward to prepare for a pandemic than a hurricane, tornado, or earthquake.
2 replies 1 retweet 6 likesShow this thread -
But the degree of agency you exercise completely determines the outcome: if you immediately get off your collective ass do all the things you're supposed to - mass produce and deploy tests, quarantine individuals, do contact tracing - it's no problem. Example: Singapore, Taiwan.
1 reply 1 retweet 9 likesShow this thread -
If you do nothing and hope for the best (or deny there's a problem), you get a total disaster. The two outcomes are completely within any modern country's collective power to decide between.
1 reply 1 retweet 7 likesShow this thread -
This is why the thing where people label any call for preparation as fear-mongering or stoking panic is the true harmful thing. There has been very very little panic. But calling things panic which are not panic is probably the most harmful thing that people have done.
1 reply 2 retweets 11 likesShow this thread -
Stop labeling calls for preparation as panic. It's not panic. It's literally the only prudent course of action, as Singapore and Taiwan (positive examples), and Iran and Italy (negative examples) have shown us.
4 replies 12 retweets 22 likesShow this thread
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.