I think it’s pointless to project what the fatality rate is. It’s a new life form that’s got out that can maintain integrity and swap RNA across many creatures. It profoundly changes the world. It could evolve a rehash of almost any disease, and maintain “stealth”
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Hugo_Lz and
You think fatality rate is pointless, ok. I mean, people aren’t gonna quarantine themselves if fatality is comparable to flu. People are really doing a lot of mental gymnastics to justify a very fearful stance and I feel like there’s a bigger story buried under that clear bias
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and
She is just having fun and writing SF some timespic.twitter.com/buQkAnLXN5
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
Any idea how one projects the estimated 14-17% of infections requiring ICU?
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and
ICU: 16% per my last academic reading. 20% per recent news reading. China has stable / advanced epidemic. Dead rate as today dead divided by today cases : 3.60%. Will still go up.pic.twitter.com/PGmCg7PJ0b
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and
Also, i initially assumed you were a classic uninformed "it s just flu" user. If you dived into data and academic sources we can go ahead with more detail. Event mortality will be ~4% on detected cases. Virus mortality depends on undetected cases, and can be much lower.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and
For forecast purpose: i start with high-worse case scenario. Then divide down for more plausible. It s still worrying. Virus mortality of 0.5% and spread of 15% like flu is still worrying 6M dead worldwide. So ideal scenario is seasonal flu ×20? DiamondPrincess: >20% spread.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
What I don’t get there is, if you’re using flu spread rate and 5x the flu mortality, how are you getting 20x flu deaths
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @Hugo_Lz and
between 80x & 700x lethality Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV) Imperial College London https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf … 2 - Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Projecthttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ …
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this may help -- looking for my other references! https://www.facebook.com/einfall/posts/10101762638869382 …
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Michael37823933 and
I cannot (should not?) integrate preprints in wikipedia ^^
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @Michael37823933 and
I think medarxiv is way better and faster than traditional Peer review
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