Any idea how one projects the estimated 14-17% of infections requiring ICU?
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and
ICU: 16% per my last academic reading. 20% per recent news reading. China has stable / advanced epidemic. Dead rate as today dead divided by today cases : 3.60%. Will still go up.pic.twitter.com/PGmCg7PJ0b
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and
Also, i initially assumed you were a classic uninformed "it s just flu" user. If you dived into data and academic sources we can go ahead with more detail. Event mortality will be ~4% on detected cases. Virus mortality depends on undetected cases, and can be much lower.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and
For forecast purpose: i start with high-worse case scenario. Then divide down for more plausible. It s still worrying. Virus mortality of 0.5% and spread of 15% like flu is still worrying 6M dead worldwide. So ideal scenario is seasonal flu ×20? DiamondPrincess: >20% spread.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
What I don’t get there is, if you’re using flu spread rate and 5x the flu mortality, how are you getting 20x flu deaths
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and
Depending on high or low estimate. Seasonal flu: 290~650,000 deads/year. 6M = 20× 290,000.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
That math adds up but somehow you got a 20x result while only applying 5x to the death rate. Maybe it’s the seasonality, ie flu is 1/4th of year but this is year round?
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @Hugo_Lz and
Gotcha, thank you both. So to recap, worse than flu due to some combo of: 3-4x higher spread rate, 5x mortality give or take, and then higher ICU rate too
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @Hugo_Lz and
well, the spread rate is *actually* an exponential, and *actually* much worse than normal because it evades symptoms and test,s 70-800x lethality >1000x (?) ICU also it's an evolution superbug. 1/1000x less likely to mutate but can cross species and splice in other RNA
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Replying to @DanielleFong @WolfofMStreet and
I agree with most of your assessment but how do backup the claim "evolution superbug". It's another coronavirus like SARS1 or other flu causing coronaviruses. What gives it the propensity to evolve better than the others ?
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It’s much lowered (1/1000x) chance of mutation but the genetic evidence (maybe you can find with search, look for “phylogenetic”) shows a multiple sources transfers (bats, pangolins) which it subbed in RNA fragments.
Sorry for the lack of ref, maybe others can find. Need 

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Replying to @DanielleFong @Skaffen00 and
1Billions incubators of 60kg of hosts cells. It s party time for coronavirus ! Also, recently, i am Mr. RulesOfThumbsEstimates while Danielle is Miss ThereIsTheFreshestAcademicNumbersOnThat.
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