Any idea how one projects the estimated 14-17% of infections requiring ICU?
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and
ICU: 16% per my last academic reading. 20% per recent news reading. China has stable / advanced epidemic. Dead rate as today dead divided by today cases : 3.60%. Will still go up.pic.twitter.com/PGmCg7PJ0b
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and
Also, i initially assumed you were a classic uninformed "it s just flu" user. If you dived into data and academic sources we can go ahead with more detail. Event mortality will be ~4% on detected cases. Virus mortality depends on undetected cases, and can be much lower.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and
For forecast purpose: i start with high-worse case scenario. Then divide down for more plausible. It s still worrying. Virus mortality of 0.5% and spread of 15% like flu is still worrying 6M dead worldwide. So ideal scenario is seasonal flu ×20? DiamondPrincess: >20% spread.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
What I don’t get there is, if you’re using flu spread rate and 5x the flu mortality, how are you getting 20x flu deaths
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and
Depending on high or low estimate. Seasonal flu: 290~650,000 deads/year. 6M = 20× 290,000.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
That math adds up but somehow you got a 20x result while only applying 5x to the death rate. Maybe it’s the seasonality, ie flu is 1/4th of year but this is year round?
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @Hugo_Lz and
Gotcha, thank you both. So to recap, worse than flu due to some combo of: 3-4x higher spread rate, 5x mortality give or take, and then higher ICU rate too
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @Hugo_Lz and
well, the spread rate is *actually* an exponential, and *actually* much worse than normal because it evades symptoms and test,s 70-800x lethality >1000x (?) ICU also it's an evolution superbug. 1/1000x less likely to mutate but can cross species and splice in other RNA
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Hugo_Lz and
Appreciate the discussion! Please forgive any earlier issues, I’ve had a month of dealing with some obtuse folks before meeting y’all
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happy to find connection!
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Replying to @DanielleFong @WolfofMStreet and
Same here. Time consuming, but happy to met folks truly diving-asking for the numbers.
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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