Any idea how one projects the estimated 14-17% of infections requiring ICU?
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and
ICU: 16% per my last academic reading. 20% per recent news reading. China has stable / advanced epidemic. Dead rate as today dead divided by today cases : 3.60%. Will still go up.pic.twitter.com/PGmCg7PJ0b
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and
Also, i initially assumed you were a classic uninformed "it s just flu" user. If you dived into data and academic sources we can go ahead with more detail. Event mortality will be ~4% on detected cases. Virus mortality depends on undetected cases, and can be much lower.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and
For forecast purpose: i start with high-worse case scenario. Then divide down for more plausible. It s still worrying. Virus mortality of 0.5% and spread of 15% like flu is still worrying 6M dead worldwide. So ideal scenario is seasonal flu ×20? DiamondPrincess: >20% spread.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
What I don’t get there is, if you’re using flu spread rate and 5x the flu mortality, how are you getting 20x flu deaths
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and
Depending on high or low estimate. Seasonal flu: 290~650,000 deads/year. 6M = 20× 290,000.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
That math adds up but somehow you got a 20x result while only applying 5x to the death rate. Maybe it’s the seasonality, ie flu is 1/4th of year but this is year round?
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @Hugo_Lz and
this is surely stretching the limitations of twitter as a medium. I don't know which calculations you're referring to. Just use the 95% CI in the Report 4 from imperial. It's 0.5% - 4%. and it's like 14% - 17 severe IIRC
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Replying to @DanielleFong @WolfofMStreet and
Agree. Between 0.5 and 4% so far. Depending what we talk about : virus mortality or detected cases mortality. Note: Danielle kept more academic reading recently. I am still standing on my early Feb. reading.
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
I try to have a twitter / coronavirus pause........
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great idea!




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