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DanielleFong's profile
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
@DanielleFong

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𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪

@DanielleFong

𝔞 𝔟𝔩𝔞𝕤𝔱 𝔣𝔯𝔬𝔪 𝔱𝕙𝖊 𝔭𝔞𝔰𝔱 𝕝𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕝 𝟛𝟚 𝕤𝕠𝕣𝕔𝕖𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤, 𝕙𝕒𝕣𝕕𝕔𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕞𝕠𝕕𝕖

.earth  🌎
daniellefong.com
Joined February 2008

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    1. 𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪‏ @DanielleFong Feb 29
      • Report Tweet
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      Replying to @WolfofMStreet @Hugo_Lz and

      I think it’s pointless to project what the fatality rate is. It’s a new life form that’s got out that can maintain integrity and swap RNA across many creatures. It profoundly changes the world. It could evolve a rehash of almost any disease, and maintain “stealth”

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Wolf of M Street‏ @WolfofMStreet Feb 29
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      Replying to @DanielleFong @Hugo_Lz and

      You think fatality rate is pointless, ok. I mean, people aren’t gonna quarantine themselves if fatality is comparable to flu. People are really doing a lot of mental gymnastics to justify a very fearful stance and I feel like there’s a bigger story buried under that clear bias

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Hugo Lpz 羅禹國‏ @Hugo_Lz Mar 1
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      Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and

      She is just having fun and writing SF some timespic.twitter.com/buQkAnLXN5

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Wolf of M Street‏ @WolfofMStreet Mar 1
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      Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and

      Any idea how one projects the estimated 14-17% of infections requiring ICU?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Hugo Lpz 羅禹國‏ @Hugo_Lz Mar 1
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      Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and

      ICU: 16% per my last academic reading. 20% per recent news reading. China has stable / advanced epidemic. Dead rate as today dead divided by today cases : 3.60%. Will still go up.pic.twitter.com/PGmCg7PJ0b

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Hugo Lpz 羅禹國‏ @Hugo_Lz Mar 1
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      Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and

      Also, i initially assumed you were a classic uninformed "it s just flu" user. If you dived into data and academic sources we can go ahead with more detail. Event mortality will be ~4% on detected cases. Virus mortality depends on undetected cases, and can be much lower.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Hugo Lpz 羅禹國‏ @Hugo_Lz Mar 1
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      Replying to @Hugo_Lz @WolfofMStreet and

      For forecast purpose: i start with high-worse case scenario. Then divide down for more plausible. It s still worrying. Virus mortality of 0.5% and spread of 15% like flu is still worrying 6M dead worldwide. So ideal scenario is seasonal flu ×20? DiamondPrincess: >20% spread.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Wolf of M Street‏ @WolfofMStreet Mar 1
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      Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and

      What I don’t get there is, if you’re using flu spread rate and 5x the flu mortality, how are you getting 20x flu deaths

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Hugo Lpz 羅禹國‏ @Hugo_Lz Mar 1
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      Replying to @WolfofMStreet @DanielleFong and

      Depending on high or low estimate. Seasonal flu: 290~650,000 deads/year. 6M = 20× 290,000.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Wolf of M Street‏ @WolfofMStreet Mar 1
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      Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and

      That math adds up but somehow you got a 20x result while only applying 5x to the death rate. Maybe it’s the seasonality, ie flu is 1/4th of year but this is year round?

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪‏ @DanielleFong Mar 1
      • Report Tweet
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      Replying to @WolfofMStreet @Hugo_Lz and

      this is surely stretching the limitations of twitter as a medium. I don't know which calculations you're referring to. Just use the 95% CI in the Report 4 from imperial. It's 0.5% - 4%. and it's like 14% - 17 severe IIRC

      12:36 AM - 1 Mar 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Hugo Lpz 羅禹國
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Hugo Lpz 羅禹國‏ @Hugo_Lz Mar 1
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          Replying to @DanielleFong @WolfofMStreet and

          Agree. Between 0.5 and 4% so far. Depending what we talk about : virus mortality or detected cases mortality. Note: Danielle kept more academic reading recently. I am still standing on my early Feb. reading.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Hugo Lpz 羅禹國‏ @Hugo_Lz Mar 1
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          Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and

          I try to have a twitter / coronavirus pause........

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 1 more reply

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