Well. We could eat from our pantry & freezer for 3-4 weeks easily. And we have an extra bunch of dog food, toiletries, our Rx’s are filled, stocked up on house cleaning products. But I’m desperately homesick and want to fly back east to see the rest of my family- bad timing, eh?
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Replying to @lorakolodny
I think we’re about to find out that the true death rate (% of all infections) is a tiny fraction of the tossed around 2% figure, which I always see reported without the crucial fine print that confirmed cases are a much sicker population than all infections.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @WolfofMStreet @lorakolodny
To which people oddly respond to me “who cares about death rate, the infections are growing so fast.”. I don’t get that . . are we really expecting to disrupt our lives if the death rate for all infections is going to be 0.2%. Certainly not me.
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Replying to @WolfofMStreet @lorakolodny
it will flood the medical system. no way that holds up.
2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes -
Hugo Lpz 羅禹國 Retweeted Wolf of M Street
@Wolfof. We have take into account the latency between detection and death, 10 days later. The we have 4% true mortality. About 40× the flu. We have 20% going to ICU. Doesnt happen with flu. We expect ~50% world pop sick. Doesnt happen with flu.https://mobile.twitter.com/WolfofMStreet/status/1233996140556804097 …Hugo Lpz 羅禹國 added,
Wolf of M Street @WolfofMStreetReplying to @lorakolodnyI think we’re about to find out that the true death rate (% of all infections) is a tiny fraction of the tossed around 2% figure, which I always see reported without the crucial fine print that confirmed cases are a much sicker population than all infections.2 replies 1 retweet 1 like -
Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
With the numbers above (high-worse forecast, true), we head toward... As part of
population
0.04×0.5=0.2% in
.
: 7M
.
0.20×0.5=10% in ICU.
: 33M
.
IF! IF! Hospitals hold it. But they wont. Hospital would crack. There is not enough artificial lungs.
Mortality 
.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
Hugo Lpz 羅禹國 Retweeted Sarah Kliff
Divide by 10 to have a more likely/hopeful estimate. IF LUCKY.
0.7M
.
3.3M
ICU.
?
hospitalisations.
millions households bankrupted.https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahkliff/status/1233821045913681920 …Hugo Lpz 羅禹國 added,
Sarah KliffVerified account @sarahkliffA patient was held in mandatory isolation at a hospital due to suspected Coronavirus. He's received nearly $4,000 in bills from providers that treated him — hospitals doctors (who reversed the bill when NYT inquired), radiologists, an ambulance company. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/upshot/coronavirus-surprise-medical-bills.html …2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong and
Nope. Just wrong. Disappointed to still be teaching math on March 1. Thought my last math lesson was two weeks ago but guess you’re late to the party.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
If I am late, why do I have a > 10000% IRR right now?
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Replying to @DanielleFong @Hugo_Lz and
Was a response to the other one. Nice IRR. What are your picks.
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