People are saying that this is a “nightmare scenario” that was “unpredictable.”
Actually it was not!
Some
predicted a pandemic, weeks ago
It’s the nature of asymptomatic spread; it evades our containment.
It was simply unspeakable, publicly
Or simply hard to believe 
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Replying to @DanielleFong
It s far from nightmare. Avian flu is 60% lethal. This one is .4 to 4%. In term of virality tho, it is quite heavy weigh : 45 sickness and good BRR allows loooot of penetration. (DiamondPrincess: 20%). PS: 01.23 = 830 cases. 02.23 = 80,000,000 cases. With 7days period, BRR=4?
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong
Outch !!! 80,000 sorry for the typo !!!

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Replying to @Hugo_Lz
It is a typo — I noticed now that it was 2.23 based on the numbers, but reaaaally, a factor of 1000x may be plausible with 10x undertesting and 3 week 100x’ing and 3 weeks to median presentation.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Assuming top 10% of the actual epidemic in both dates: 01.23 (830 cases) and 02.23 (~78,000 cases)... We still have a x100, in 28~30 days. Assuming 7 days between infection and contamination of next generation. I see: 830 x3.1 x3.1 x3.1 x3.1=76652 BRR=~3.1pic.twitter.com/sfeRohFw0L
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Replying to @Hugo_Lz @DanielleFong
We see x100 over 4 weeks. x1000 is only if either gov lies (not its long term interest) or if measurement method have failed to follow exponential growth of cases.
Possible.
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I can't believe people still advance the idea "we don't know enough to prepare, worry, or panic" Come on! Do the best preparation you can so you are not forced into a panic later!
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Oh ! and non-
China has now a 28-days latency over
China, but it's coming.
01.18: 125
Out-
01.30: 121
=12 days latency
01.23: 830
Out-
02.17: 892
= 24 days
01.25: 1,975
Out-
02.23: 2047
= 28 days0 replies 1 retweet 2 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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