If we assume a time from infection to death of 4 weeks, a doubling time of a week and a fatality rate of .1-5%, each covid-19 death is evidence of 320-16,000 infected. Does my math check out? This is how I’m currently trying to reason about countries that aren’t testing.
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Replying to @diviacaroline
Yes, except it is also critical to have a sampling efficiency for deaths attributed to the virus. it’s hard to determine if someone viler able died to this or a previous widespread disease so some deaths will be undetected too
3:10 AM - 24 Feb 2020
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