What's primary source for 28 "serious/critical" #? Are you sure that # compares to 'hospitalization' in normal years? Infected person arrived on Diamond Princess Jan 20. 30d later, after 16d of bungled quarantine, 624 confirmed infections – but still, thankfully, *0* deaths.
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Justin Retweeted
NHK The point isn't the mortality % the point is the healthcare burden as it travels through the population. Most flu admissions are short and do not need PPE, ventilators and so on. https://twitter.com/livecrisisnews/status/1230250625331605507?s=20 …
Justin added,
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No, to claim "NHK", you need to provide a link to NHK reporting it. Not some mysterious 'livecrisisnews' account of unclear authorship which doesn't even include a link! (If you trust such sketchy accounts, you will be perpetually frightened & misinformed.)
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Justin Retweeted FXHedge
It is reported from multiple places that NHK just announced it. I don't pass on garbage info, I already knew it was reported in parallel. Inside an hour the links will be everywhere.https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1230259958391832576?s=20 …
Justin added,
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More unlinked twitter reports aren't convincing. Each source you provide - China Daily! anaonymous twitterer! - gives me less confidence you have a handle on the situation. But you do seem to want to try to convince me, even though your current tactics are doing the opposite.
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Justin Retweeted BNO Newsroom
BNO news is very reliable. but believe what you want. NHK has TV news then does URLs then does English URLs this is how things work.https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230250068869033987?s=20 …
Justin added,
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"BNO"? Never heard of 'em. Who owns them? Who are their key journalists? Where are they based? Why don't their articles list author names? (You are trusting sketchy sources, which helps explain your disproportionate panic.)
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You are really extraordinarily out of touch. Anyway it is in the last paragraph of this article. https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200220/k10012293031000.html?utm_int=news_contents_news-main_003 …
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Thanks for link! Google translates as: "According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, 28 of the confirmed individuals are seriously ill, some of whom are being treated in intensive care units. In addition, there is one seriously ill person who has not been infected."
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Replying to @gojomo @Trumpery45 and
So: *fewer* than 28 in ICU, 'serious' not defined. (28-'serious') / (at-least-621-infections) = no-more-than-4.5%-'serious' (621 is floor on infection count: ~2000+ still untested, & in 30d even some neg results maybe from people who fully recovered from mild infections)
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Dude, 3 week lag to death
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Maybe! But infection entered Diamond Princess January 20; quarantine only began 2 full weeks later. It's now another 2 weeks after that. Still zero deaths. (I expect there may be a few, but nothing there yet supports the idea of Wuhan-level mortality.)
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it actually entered 23-25 and started small of course. 5 day median incubation, some much longer. staggered exposure. Many are on week one, post incubation
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