Deaths might be underreported! But other factors, like covering up collateral damage from overreaction, or justifying oppressive response, or confusion about deaths in an overworked system, could also cause overreporting. Let's check back, in 2021 & see who was credulous.
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Replying to @gojomo @DanielleFong
you wont have to wait that long before discovering your peculiar theories arent standing up.
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Replying to @Trumpery45 @DanielleFong
OK mr-kinda-believes-china's-health-oppression-is-competent-but-also-china's-actually-lying-and-my-specific-assertions-about-filled-sports-stadiums-and-"well-over"-death-counts-are-just-made-up-hand-waving. Contact me January 1, 2021 with all the links proving you were right.
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Replying to @Trumpery45 @gojomo
Hey guys sorry to have been away from modding duties. FWIW Gordon I think that you are underestimating the disease. Before we talk about costs I just want to make clear that if
#covid19 becomes endemic there will probably be a#covid20, a#covid21.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
I think the big problem is the subsymptomatic spread. It means that the virus is way harder to contain or defend against, *and* it reduces the evolutionary pressure that normally makes more contagiousness trade off vs lethality The
#covid family of diseases is elusive, lethal1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @DanielleFong @Trumpery45
Maybe! But ‘subsymptomatic spread’ that also never inconveniences (much less kills!) hosts is fitness ideal for viruses. Not yet firm evidence subsymptomic spreaders have given fatal cases to others: so maybe already some strains both very mild & very widespread. …
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In that case, containment already impossible (& draconian measures that will fail anyway then awful on net costs/benefits) - but also subsequent impact much less fearsome - on scale of ‘bad flu season’ or even ‘worst flu season ever’ - but still not society-reordering.
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"much less fearsome ... ‘worst flu season ever’ - but still not society-reordering." Seriously?
"In just 18 months at least a third of world’s population was infected. Estimates on exact number of fatalities vary wildly, from 20M to 50M to 100M deaths."https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/magazine/2018/03-04/history-spanish-flu-pandemic/ …1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Seriously! Of course, deaths from 'Spanish' flu massive & tragic – & even now, 100y later, its exact origin & manner of killing not fully understood. But very soon, society returned to normal, with some historians labeling it a "forgotten pandemic":https://en.wivipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Legacy …
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We lost so many beautiful souls; how much of the world was derailed by the pandemic, we’ll never know.
But it’s enough to fight.
Damage to the economy from stopping or slowing down hugely overestimated,
Damage to civilization from a family of pandemics huge underestimated
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its “forgotten” not because it was not impactful but because it was during ww1 when history was being written by victories and losses. The death toll far far exceeded the war.
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Never said Spanish flu "was not impactful"! Said that even *if*
#COVID19 becomes widespread, deaths likely to resemble bad flu seasons – & even that one unique worst-ever flu season (1919) wasn't society-reordering to level some now predicting (& using to justify draconian acts)1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes - 5 more replies
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