This thread relates to what we can learn from important paper published today in China CDC Weekly that describes epid characteristics of first 72,314 pts with #COVID19 in China (includes confirmed and suspected) as of Feb 11 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 … [with my editorial notes] 1/x
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Paper says all COVID19 cases must be reported to Chinese Infectious Disease Information System by local PH workers, each case has national identifier and no records duplicated. [Seems like remarkable database with power to analyze data from huge number of pts quickly.] 2/x
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These 72,314 pts comprised of: 44,672 confirmed; 16,182 suspected;10,567 clinically diagnosed & 889 asymptomatic. [Authors say PCR testing is slow, labor intensive and requires specialized skill and technicians, which is why a substantial portion don’t have PCR test] 3/x
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Data from the 44K confirmed cases, shows highest number of cases in the 40-70 yr old range, but shows CFR rises steadily from .4% in the 40s to 14.8% in the >80 range. 4/xpic.twitter.com/9Wgjr4jRWn
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As expected, majority of cases are in Hubei province, but 25% are in other provinces around China [which does raise question about the rationale behind the comparative intensity of the measures being taken in Wuhan as compared to elsewhere.] 5/x
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Overall, 14% of cases had no Wuhan related exposures [which stated a different way means that 14% of cases are through some kind of community transmission outside of Wuhan.] 6/x
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Some pts had comorbid conditions: Hypertension (13%) Diabetes (5.3%) Cardiovasc Dz (4.2%) Resp Dz (2.4%) Cancer (.5%). [Surprisingly distinct from findings from early studies, they report that 74% had no comorbid conditions.] 7/x
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Replying to @T_Inglesby
@DanielleFong your China cdc link won’t load so I’m suspicious. Are you suggesting that this pathogen is more widespread that hubei (hence the widespread ‘quarantine’. I use that advisedly) and that other Comorbid factors are less relevant ? Surely that is concerning ?2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
guys, I suggest you get in the habit of saving the website...
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Replying to @DanielleFong @T_Inglesby
I’m not sure I would trust any Chinese controlled site anyway danni if I’m being honest and I only trust DR Ryan on who if I’m being honest. Too much political ‘niceties’ and pretend ‘avoid panic’ going on for me.
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