#Coronavirus Continues to Baffle Experts
-Nice to share an article with you @DFisman
#SARSCoV2 #COVID19https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/questions-about-coronavirus-still-baffle-experts-after-wild-week-of-headlines …
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#COVID19 could still be contained. Key is SARS-like large individual variation in transmission Takes 𝘀𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 independent seed cases to spark large outbreak (diagram in red box) So contact tracing could work, even when missing some infections https://cmmid-lshtm.shinyapps.io/new_outbreak_p pic.twitter.com/kqMYtDABNy
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R0 is relative to given population (density,mobility). In early Wuhan it could have been as high as 5-6 pre-shutdown. What matters in the end is R_effective after control measures. See Figure 1 E) here: https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html … Not clear how they think R<1 by mid Feb., though
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Replying to @epsilon3141 @s_c86 and
@DanielleFong Agree. My concern is that while Re benefits from quarantines etc, R0 derived population is large and globally disparate due to CCP secrecy/poor diagnosis/travel. Add concerns on testing veracity/uncertainty of aerosol spread/reinfection etc. Need more verified data1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @WhyScots @epsilon3141 and
We have to not give up; contact tracing still gives us key information.
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We need to deploy teams to quickly stop the spread informed by where it appears in Cambodia. This is critical to understanding and mitigating the outbreak. We will learn so much.
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