Scary math. Let’s say COVID19 infects just 20% USA citizens as H1N1 did. If we take estimate for critical care of 2-10% (some are 20%), we need 240,000-1.2 million beds. Our 100,000 ICU beds are full now. Most of 500,000 acute-care beds full already.
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Replying to @rtnarch @DanielleFong
will this be worse because the bed needs will spike locally / how much can they be spread out? Well I guess if already at capacity doesn't matter, but still...
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Great question! High quality (~Uber or better) logistics / triage in this could be good for a factor of 3-10 maybe. Would require excellent in-state and inter-region and possibly federal coordination. A regular resource constraint conference call (10mins?) at start & end shift?
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Replying to @DanielleFong @rtnarch
Thanks! I like the clear actionable. If it's already outbreaking in a city, inter-city with other infected cities might work. OTOH, need multi-scale approach, sharing hospital bed capacity can be vector for spread:https://necsi.edu/effective-ebola-response …
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is this something you might liek to take a first cut at modeling a toy model of how it can help?
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Replying to @DanielleFong @rtnarch
it = multiscale isolation? I would edit someone else's toy model or contrib ~5hrs/week. Tried making an interactive essay mid-January alone but got discouraged. Main research is tools to teach programming, longer term intervention towards simulation thinking for all this, etc.
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not sure if it should be multi-scale isolation or the more simple “here’s how much we can maybe stretch our bed capacity, are we in trouble / ready to do this, how much of a factor of improvement might be possible?”
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