𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 Retweeted Adam Kucharski
the biggest factor I see fuzzing all these models is the terrible sensitivity of the tests to the early stages of the disease while they are still infectious we should *specify* the requirements in test sensitivity and ease and run a challenge to get the best tests id'd and madehttps://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1227847122223083520 …
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 added,
Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
Replying to @DanielleFong
We’ve got the main disease states captured in our transmission model, so will need to put additional observation process on the modelled cases that become symptomatic (with a different confirmation probability to the one we’ve been using) and add to likelihood.
10:51 PM - 12 Feb 2020
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