Worth noting this isn’t really a forecast. It’s what happens if you put R0=2 into an extremely simple mathematical model, which in effect assumes I’m as likely to meet someone in New Zealand as I am my neighbour.https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1227464604860719104 …
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This simple one-population model can be useful for specific areas (e.g. cities), and over short time windows when transmission might not vary that much. But I’d be very cautious about applying it to larger areas, let alone the whole world.
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Replying to @AdamJKucharski
For the record: I did not run any such model. The Guardian quote referred to my response when asked about an attack rate of 60+% generated by a Japanese colleague.
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Replying to @gmleunghku @AdamJKucharski
Moreover, I also said that “the attack rate of 70-80% is meaningless per se because one needs to understand 1) over what time period this could (NOT would) happen and 2) severity of infection.”
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Replying to @gmleunghku @AdamJKucharski
Finally: “this is why we must ensure NPIs are optimised in context and access to effective therapeutics (RCTs ongoing) delivered by resilient health systems, until vaccines become widely available (numerous early efforts underway), such that those numbers don’t materialise.”
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Replying to @gmleunghku @AdamJKucharski
We somehow need a way to communicate that: This could be disastrous without intervention (here are simple models which could show how), here are ways to buy time as vaccines and better tests and treatments are developed Outcome depends on what people *do*. R0 depends on *us*!
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The best way to state it is just like that, with specifics of course. No political speak, just plain and factual I think
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Thank you! I agree. We need to understand and grow past limitations of our medium, though. So much of what I do on twitter is to get things into 280 characters, even using emoji’s. It used to be 140 characters! 
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Communication is always a challenge, regardless of medium
plain and honest is the best way to go. People sense lies and wiggling, lose trust. That’s far more dangerous because we have to work together to have any hope of effective mitigation0 replies 1 retweet 2 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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