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DanielleFong's profile
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪
@DanielleFong

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𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪

@DanielleFong

𝔞 𝔟𝔩𝔞𝕤𝔱 𝔣𝔯𝔬𝔪 𝔱𝕙𝖊 𝔭𝔞𝔰𝔱 𝕝𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕝 𝟛𝟚 𝕤𝕠𝕣𝕔𝕖𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤, 𝕙𝕒𝕣𝕕𝕔𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕞𝕠𝕕𝕖

.earth  🌎
daniellefong.com
Joined February 2008

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    1. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski Feb 12
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      Adam Kucharski Retweeted Laurie Garrett

      Worth noting this isn’t really a forecast. It’s what happens if you put R0=2 into an extremely simple mathematical model, which in effect assumes I’m as likely to meet someone in New Zealand as I am my neighbour.https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1227464604860719104 …

      Adam Kucharski added,

      Laurie GarrettVerified account @Laurie_Garrett
      Leung grim #COVID19 forecast: https://twitter.com/gmleunghku/status/1227464092945874944 …
      3 replies 9 retweets 56 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski Feb 12
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      This simple one-population model can be useful for specific areas (e.g. cities), and over short time windows when transmission might not vary that much. But I’d be very cautious about applying it to larger areas, let alone the whole world.

      4 replies 2 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Gabriel Leung‏Verified account @gmleunghku Feb 12
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      Replying to @AdamJKucharski

      For the record: I did not run any such model. The Guardian quote referred to my response when asked about an attack rate of 60+% generated by a Japanese colleague.

      1 reply 6 retweets 16 likes
    4. Gabriel Leung‏Verified account @gmleunghku Feb 12
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      Replying to @gmleunghku @AdamJKucharski

      Moreover, I also said that “the attack rate of 70-80% is meaningless per se because one needs to understand 1) over what time period this could (NOT would) happen and 2) severity of infection.”

      2 replies 4 retweets 24 likes
    5. Gabriel Leung‏Verified account @gmleunghku Feb 12
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      Replying to @gmleunghku @AdamJKucharski

      Finally: “this is why we must ensure NPIs are optimised in context and access to effective therapeutics (RCTs ongoing) delivered by resilient health systems, until vaccines become widely available (numerous early efforts underway), such that those numbers don’t materialise.”

      2 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
      𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪‏ @DanielleFong Feb 12
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      Replying to @gmleunghku @AdamJKucharski

      We somehow need a way to communicate that: This could be disastrous without intervention (here are simple models which could show how), here are ways to buy time as vaccines and better tests and treatments are developed Outcome depends on what people *do*. R0 depends on *us*!

      7:30 PM - 12 Feb 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 9 Likes
      • Social Distancing Journalist FinBarley Jediphone 𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 MaMa_AmandaStevenson Evita Siu Philip Neustrom Jon T Terry Lerona
      2 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. MaMa_AmandaStevenson‏ @ABetterYouToda1 Feb 12
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          Replying to @DanielleFong @gmleunghku @AdamJKucharski

          The best way to state it is just like that, with specifics of course. No political speak, just plain and factual I think

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. 𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪‏ @DanielleFong Feb 12
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          Replying to @ABetterYouToda1 @gmleunghku @AdamJKucharski

          Thank you! I agree. We need to understand and grow past limitations of our medium, though. So much of what I do on twitter is to get things into 280 characters, even using emoji’s. It used to be 140 characters! 😬

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 1 more reply
        1. New conversation
        2. Helequin‏ @Helequin2 Feb 12
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          Replying to @DanielleFong @gmleunghku @AdamJKucharski

          One desperate strategy if there is no timeline on vaccine is to take a portion of the population that has a high probability of survival put them in a real quarantine with full medical support and deliberately infect them. To prevent this hitting the whole population at one time

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Social Distancing Journalist‏ @SDistancing Feb 12
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          Replying to @Helequin2 @DanielleFong and

          Wtf

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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