isn’t this (R0 ~4??) much more contagious than Ebola (~R0 ~2?)? and less lethal, so, much easier to spread, and spread further and more complex to test for and screen (incubation period 1-24 or even 28 days, 1/2 of transmissions during asymptomatic) prob not containable anymore
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Although much more complex to test does not hold anymore, since a live strain has been analysed in the UK.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
no, there are widespread reports that PCR is turning up massive numbers of false negatives, that they have to test again and again over time, and that the low fever evades screening. we may be able to develop better tests but we don’t currently have them.pic.twitter.com/MgaVkNN8Mv
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
Common, you must be kidding? This is an outlier of people infected from that cruise. They are currently quarantined and do not spread the disease. Give it a closer look and tell me what you see at the far left of the graph.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
well, first of all, a lot of that spread is outside of the cruise. That’s data from the 8th, so it was only 60 cases on the diamond princess then. secondly, they are letting the passengers leave, which is INSANE given the lags involved. thirdly Africa, indonesia not tracked.
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
Don't worry, there are a lot of people tracking Africa, I can assure you. At this point I have to wonder what your argument actually is.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
take a look at the last video of this pandemic exercise at JHU, Event 201. http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html … this is a fairly analogous pandemic modelling exercise invovling a coronavirus of similar, probably lower contagiousness. gets out of hand once it’s in small countries.
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this is reporting out of Africa. If you think things are ok, please respond with whatever you can share. 'We're definitely not prepared': Africa braces for new virushttps://apnews.com/e11a9c5801264262e0b2f8661408b32a …
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
Please, spare me. I've been working in Africa and can assure you that people there will also survive this.
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Of course people survived ebola — through heroic efforts — but tens of thousands died, and it critically damaged states already weakened by e.g. Boko Haram. Not saying that it’s going to kill everybody, obviously, but it’s going to have enormous impact. https://apnews.com/e11a9c5801264262e0b2f8661408b32a …pic.twitter.com/dUmsuUmabU
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