And no matter how far behind WHO or I are behind the most recent data, up to this point the current outbreak does not seem to have the potential of a global pandemic. Of course it’s advisable to perform protective measures when you live in endemic areas.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
Please update your assessment of this, an increasing opinion of episemiologists is that it’s an imminent or in fact ongoing pandemic. The bit flipped last week. Fast moving
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
Since I've observed how strong the international health community responded to the Ebola epidemic of 2014/15 in Western Africa, I'm convinced that we will also contain this outbreak with a concerted effort, as nCoV is not even quite as threatening and deadly as EVD.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
isn’t this (R0 ~4??) much more contagious than Ebola (~R0 ~2?)? and less lethal, so, much easier to spread, and spread further and more complex to test for and screen (incubation period 1-24 or even 28 days, 1/2 of transmissions during asymptomatic) prob not containable anymore
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Although much more complex to test does not hold anymore, since a live strain has been analysed in the UK.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
no, there are widespread reports that PCR is turning up massive numbers of false negatives, that they have to test again and again over time, and that the low fever evades screening. we may be able to develop better tests but we don’t currently have them.pic.twitter.com/MgaVkNN8Mv
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
Common, you must be kidding? This is an outlier of people infected from that cruise. They are currently quarantined and do not spread the disease. Give it a closer look and tell me what you see at the far left of the graph.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
fourth, superspreaders from Singapore Grand Hyatt case. None of the current travel limitations cover that case or cases like it.
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
That's not the first epidemic we have to cope with. What you see is pretty much routine practice on how to contain disease outbreaks. Yes, WHO has declared PHEIC, so what? It will ensure that everyone is on the same page and remain vigilant.
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look at the WHO response versus what has happened. Their response is clearly a week or more (weeks!) behind where it should be! Why did they not declare a Public Health Emergency on the 23rd, when obvious? They changed “moderate” to “high” health risk retroactively, in footnote
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
Have you read the report from the Emergency Committee? At this point it is political to bring everyone on the same page and committed. WHO did not even recommend travel restrictions, which is quite telling.https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov) …
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
going to be afk for the next couple hours, apologies.
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