I‘m not denying that the severe form of the disease (caused by a virus, not a bug) is fatal. My point is that there is no reason to panic, as the chance to acquire it is quite low and if you do, it’s more like a cold in most cases.
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As an epidemiologist I‘m quite often in Asia to help governments strengthen their health systems to better cope with diseases. I’m currently more worried that I’m not able to reach project areas, based on the report by
@octal, than to catch the disease on my next trip.2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
“Reason to panic” kind of a strawman. Who ever suggests panic? Situation very different from that. Many ways to act to help yourself, family, friends, nation, world. This is trending towards a massive impact, so getting the correct ideas & behaviors in is very impt.
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
So then back to corona: to what I calculated from available sources, mortality rate is below 0.1%. Keep an eye on current and new deaths for those passengers on the cruise to get an idea.
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And no matter how far behind WHO or I are behind the most recent data, up to this point the current outbreak does not seem to have the potential of a global pandemic. Of course it’s advisable to perform protective measures when you live in endemic areas.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
Please update your assessment of this, an increasing opinion of episemiologists is that it’s an imminent or in fact ongoing pandemic. The bit flipped last week. Fast moving
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
Since I've observed how strong the international health community responded to the Ebola epidemic of 2014/15 in Western Africa, I'm convinced that we will also contain this outbreak with a concerted effort, as nCoV is not even quite as threatening and deadly as EVD.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
isn’t this (R0 ~4??) much more contagious than Ebola (~R0 ~2?)? and less lethal, so, much easier to spread, and spread further and more complex to test for and screen (incubation period 1-24 or even 28 days, 1/2 of transmissions during asymptomatic) prob not containable anymore
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Although much more complex to test does not hold anymore, since a live strain has been analysed in the UK.
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no, there are widespread reports that PCR is turning up massive numbers of false negatives, that they have to test again and again over time, and that the low fever evades screening. we may be able to develop better tests but we don’t currently have them.pic.twitter.com/MgaVkNN8Mv
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Replying to @DanielleFong @octal
Common, you must be kidding? This is an outlier of people infected from that cruise. They are currently quarantined and do not spread the disease. Give it a closer look and tell me what you see at the far left of the graph.
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Replying to @cryptodad77 @octal
well, first of all, a lot of that spread is outside of the cruise. That’s data from the 8th, so it was only 60 cases on the diamond princess then. secondly, they are letting the passengers leave, which is INSANE given the lags involved. thirdly Africa, indonesia not tracked.
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