It’s not like a flu; it’s more contagious and more deadly.
It can’t be contained like SARS; it evades screening and tests.
It’s not like 1918; we fly everywhere 
It’s not “safe outside
”
27 days to kill Li Wenliang; it’s a timebomb
It’s #2019-nCoV & it’s wrecking 2020
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Replying to @DanielleFong @awilkinson
Mortality rate is lower?https://www.sciencealert.com/this-chart-shows-how-the-wuhan-virus-compares-to-other-recent-outbreaks …
4 replies 2 retweets 11 likes -
Replying to @AaronComics @awilkinson
No, this is a mistake. The incubation period is variable, 1-14 days, deaths are backloaded to the 3rd week of the disease and beyond, and the disease is growing exponentially (~10x per week!) Consider that it took 27 days to kill Li Wenliang, 34, the whistleblower doctor.
3 replies 14 retweets 62 likes -
Replying to @aznaurmidov @DanielleFong and
But the denominator is hugely under reported. The majority of cases are not counted because the symptoms are mild and they do not present at hospital and probably never even know they have this new strain.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Denominator is *timeshifted* backwards from the present by the ~mean incubation period (1-14days? 28 days??) Mean is maybe 5 - 7 days The numerator, deaths, is *timeshifted* backwards from the present by the 3 weeks to >~ 27 days Both growing fast. You have to factor both in
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