Nice to see some data and narratives pointing toward the novel #coronavirus having mild illness in an increasingly recognized and growing proportion of people.
Lots of premature assumptions on the case fatality rate with the incomplete data available.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-deaths-idUSKBN1ZZ1AH …
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Replying to @BogochIsaac
That Fisman quote about early estimates of 10% CFR for 2009 H1N1 is odd - yes, looked higher very early in Mexico but that was after <100 cases, was clearly lower very quickly, I don’t see a parallel here
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Replying to @maybechicken @BogochIsaac
No doubt mild cases are undercounted, but don’t forget the lag between diagnosis and severe disease/ death; also, 1% is still very significant burden
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Replying to @maybechicken
I think the key is that nobody truly knows what the cfr will be but many will not be surprised if it is under 1%
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Replying to @BogochIsaac @maybechicken
I'm sure that's true, but how will health systems cope with extended community transmission and strained hospital resources? Will the CFR increase if the subset with severe disease (~10%?) do not get supplemental oxygen, etc.?
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Replying to @BishopBlougram @maybechicken
That’s the worry – even if there is a very low CFR, if there still are still a. significant number of infected individuals, that small proportion of individuals with severe disease may still translate to a large number of people and stretch the capacity of healthcare systems.
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Should we not be preparing more supplemental oxygen systems in Canada, in preparation? Are the hospitals already doing this?
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They are sort of doing this but supplies are certainly not sufficient; they are insufficient worldwide as per @WHO
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