We finally have numbers on this, and it’s terrible news. The finding below implies R0 >~2, even if we totally isolate people once they show worrying symptoms.
(ht @NellWatson!
)
Study: Half of secondary virus infections occur in incubation period.https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half-of-secondary-virus-infections-occur-in-incubation-period-study.html …
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Replying to @DanielleFong @NellWatson
I think there choke point in laboratory diagnosis at this point.
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Replying to @Helequin2 @NellWatson
there surely is. Even in the USA the centralization of the testing of this from the CDC imposes a 4-5 day delay at the moment. The number of kits is a known limitation inside China, many many reports are that even if you have severe symptoms they were sending people home no test.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
How bad do you think the infection rate is actually?
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Replying to @Helequin2
R0 ~= 2-4 even under these draconian controls, but in Winter. Might be a bit better in Summer — a hope. Far worse in close confinement, such as Cruiseliners (1? case - >= 61 cases in Japan!) “quarantine zones” (the nearly literal jails in China), overloaded hospitals, HK etc.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Without draconian measures? Just hoping, it gets here after flu season. Figure out door handles yet? ; )
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𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 Retweeted Melanie Ngai 🇨🇳 🇨🇦 🇭🇰 🤜 👊 🤛 (☭ spy)
also, look at thishttps://twitter.com/melngai416/status/1225908640734801920?s=20 …
𝓓𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒 𝓕𝑜𝑛𝑔, 𝕖𝕩-𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕕𝕚𝕘𝕪 added,
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