We finally have numbers on this, and it’s terrible news. The finding below implies R0 >~2, even if we totally isolate people once they show worrying symptoms.
(ht @NellWatson!
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Study: Half of secondary virus infections occur in incubation period.https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half-of-secondary-virus-infections-occur-in-incubation-period-study.html …
there surely is. Even in the USA the centralization of the testing of this from the CDC imposes a 4-5 day delay at the moment. The number of kits is a known limitation inside China, many many reports are that even if you have severe symptoms they were sending people home no test.
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How bad do you think the infection rate is actually?
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R0 ~= 2-4 even under these draconian controls, but in Winter. Might be a bit better in Summer — a hope. Far worse in close confinement, such as Cruiseliners (1? case - >= 61 cases in Japan!) “quarantine zones” (the nearly literal jails in China), overloaded hospitals, HK etc.
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The Center for Health Security claims that the CDC is now shipping diagnostic kits nationwide and time between initial specimen processing and results could go as low as four hours. https://myemail.constantcontact.com/2019-nCoV-Updates---Feb-07.html?soid=1107826135286&aid=iNqVUU5hYXE …
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