The Prepared is a site for rational people to be prepared for things. Not apocalypse, but not blithe ignorance either. @jonst0kes, founder of Ars Technica, is an editor.
I have zero stake in it but regarding the #coronavirus, I found this guide useful:
https://theprepared.com/wuhan-coronavirus/ …
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Replying to @balajis @jonst0kes
Seems like even their severe case assumes we can scale up very effective treatment inside the US. There’s a more severe case where the system is just overloaded...
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Listed under the Moderate Disruption heading "Some pressure on US healthcare systems as hoarding of supplies results in shortages for healthcare workers. Health systems in the most affected cities will likely be overloaded." Seems to be exactly about that issue?
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Yes, exactly. We think under even the moderate scenario healthcare systems in many heavily affected areas are likely to be overloaded. This even happened in the 2018 flu season in CA and some other areas.
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I appreciate not including worse cases than this due to not wanting to incite panic but with >2000 suspected cases in India containment seems almost impossible and with the possibility of mutation the severe case is almost unbounded.
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The issue for us is that there are too many experts out there who really think the CFR will turn out to be sub-1%, & that the US healthcare system can handle this. I personally am skeptical on both counts, but the landing page tries to stick to expert consensus.
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Replying to @jonst0kes @DanielleFong and
So on a personal level, I'm with you in terms of being pretty alarmed. But in terms of the editorial strategy on the site, & the scenario modeling in particular, we have to stick firmly to the middle of the road for people. And as that line changes, we'll change the scenarios.
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Ok, thank you for your service!
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