Trying to square that with the SV conventional wisdom that cleantech was a bust. It may just be that 2006-2011 was just a phenomenally bad time for a big increase in investing (financial crisis and fracking both happened in the middle).
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I must admit, I also wonder if it's just that SV is the wrong place, much as investing in high-risk software startups is a bad investment idea (though often a social good!) in most cities.
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Basically, if you take out Nest, that 2006-2011 window really did poorly.pic.twitter.com/TrNkYJauT8
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Of course, "if you take out Nest" is arguably an error, a bit like saying "if you take out Amazon, Facebook and Google, internet software companies haven't done nearly as well". True, but kinda misses the point.
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An interesting point: arguably the fracking / CleanTech distinction is artificial, & a more natural category (at least, with respect to market forces) is "new energy sources". It'd be interesting to see the analysis redone including fracking. ht
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Put another way: considered as a market, fracking was the big winner in new energy, and arguably that entire market segment was a very successful investment category. CleanTech simply happened to be a less successful slice. (Again, in purely economic terms, not wrt other goals)
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Replying to @michael_nielsen
a really really good thinker on this topic is https://mnordan.com/2015/06/16/prime-coalition-a-new-funding-model-for-radical-energy-innovation/ … -- can recommend a discussion. The TLDR is that software is cheap and medical startups had a sort of clear scaling ladder (e.g. phase 1-3 trials). Cleantech might have had one but was hit hard by successive...
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Replying to @DanielleFong @michael_nielsen
...disasters -- the great recession, the huge retreat in government support, including the DOE loan blowups in 2011 (a lot of companies were forced to return loans in part due to the republican congress, esp. after Solyndra), this took out *most* late stage co's and investors...
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Replying to @DanielleFong @michael_nielsen
...the remaining investors in cleantech, funding development, as opposed to research, relied on later stage funding by industry players, especially energy companies. These were hit very hard by the oil price collapse in 2014. Also the CEO of Total died, a major champion.
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Replying to @DanielleFong @michael_nielsen
after that, most companies looked to China. But then there was a major stock market collapse in the Chinese stock markets in 2015. By this point it was really only a few companies left, there was very little systematic investment in cleantech as a sector from 2014.
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but compare the performance of VC's in cleantech vs Elon Musk, who exhibits a vastly higher level of commitment to each project. It's not even close. VC model was to look or a set of later stage investors that didn't really materialize. EM self funds, VC's give up.
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