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NEW: #Ukraine has inflicted a major operational defeat on #Russia, recapturing almost all of #Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. Ukraine has turned the tide in its favor, but the current counter-offensive will not end the war. /1 Our latest: iswresearch.org

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I said this a few hours ago, the logical move for Russia is to collapse to defending pre-war holdings of Crimea and LHR/DNR consolidating its remaining troops in a dense defensive line until a new army can be raised which may take as long as a year.

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Retreating from Kherson implies handing over a massive amount of heavy weapons to Ukraine, far more than they already did in Kharkiv. Ukraine doesn't have to cross the river there. They can simply hold it and cross uncontested further north. Time is also on Ukraine's side.

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The Russians don't have to leave the weapons behind, they can simply destroy it.

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Only possible if their commanders decide to do an orderly retreat early instead of waiting until the last possible minute and having a rout. It's not politically accepted for them to lose Kherson so they have orders not to retreat and therefore aren't able to accomplish that.

3:32 PM · Sep 12, 2022Twitter Web App