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NEW: #Ukraine has inflicted a major operational defeat on #Russia, recapturing almost all of #Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. Ukraine has turned the tide in its favor, but the current counter-offensive will not end the war. /1 Our latest: iswresearch.org

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I said this a few hours ago, the logical move for Russia is to collapse to defending pre-war holdings of Crimea and LHR/DNR consolidating its remaining troops in a dense defensive line until a new army can be raised which may take as long as a year.

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Retreating from Kherson implies handing over a massive amount of heavy weapons to Ukraine, far more than they already did in Kharkiv. Ukraine doesn't have to cross the river there. They can simply hold it and cross uncontested further north. Time is also on Ukraine's side.

5:30 AM · Sep 12, 2022Twitter Web App

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Russia doesn't have a bunch more people who want to go fight and die in Ukraine, especially now that they're losing. There's no risk of Ukraine invading Russia, therefore no real reason for them to fight. Ukraine has massive available manpower requiring training and weapons.

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The Russians don't have to leave the weapons behind, they can simply destroy it.

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Only possible if their commanders decide to do an orderly retreat early instead of waiting until the last possible minute and having a rout. It's not politically accepted for them to lose Kherson so they have orders not to retreat and therefore aren't able to accomplish that.

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Reports (may not be true) Russians in Kherson are trying to negotiate surrendering their weapons for free passage back across the river.

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And Yes my expectation would be in a normal standup fight, Ukraine would push Russia back across the river then actually drive for Crimea by coming south from Zaporizhia then along the coast

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Forces them to defend two fronts while giving Ukraine operational maneuverer room rather than trying to force a crossing.

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