Conversation

Paul Crowley
@ciphergoth
Hanania's most recent tweet about Ukraine. The article argues that Ukraine's ambitions of taking Izium are delusional.
Quote Tweet
Richard Hanania
@RichardHanania
These reads like a pro-Russian cope, but the analyst is knowledgeable and makes some sensible points, worth a follow. bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-coun
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Daniel Micay
@DanielMicay
Replying to
@ciphergoth
and
@conorduffy_7
Russia is going to be pushed back to post-2014 borders in 2 months and they'll still be saying Ukraine can't win and will be demanding they negotiate a peace treaty with Russia giving away the Donbass and Crimea. I think after Russia lost Battle of Kyiv it was over for them.
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Daniel Micay
@DanielMicay
Replying to
@ciphergoth
@conorduffy_7
and
@RemindMe_OfThis
There's 1 significant urban area left in Kharkiv / Luhansk outside the post-2014 borders: Sievierodonetsk. Ukraine cut off the rail line used to supply it from Belgorod already. Probably going to have it in days. Russia also just gave them more heavy weapons than the west has.
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Daniel Micay
@DanielMicay
Replying to
@DanielMicay
@ciphergoth
and 2 others
They're slowly winning in Kherson against Russia's best troops. It only looks like they aren't when you compare to Russia rapidly routing in Kharkiv. Russia can't really supply them. They also can't take 99% of heavy weapons with them when they eventually retreat from Kherson.
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Daniel Micay
@DanielMicay
Replying to
@DanielMicay
@ciphergoth
and 2 others
Ukraine is mobilized. They have millions of people to arm. They'll get more and more weapons from the west. They haven't even been given the long range HIMARS/M270 missiles, western tanks, etc. let alone a bunch of F-16s and A-10s. If Russia isn't going to use nukes they're done.
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