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Hanania's most recent tweet about Ukraine. The article argues that Ukraine's ambitions of taking Izium are delusional.

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These reads like a pro-Russian cope, but the analyst is knowledgeable and makes some sensible points, worth a follow. bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-coun

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Ironically, I think he's been making the critical mistake of conflating what he wants to happen with what is happening.

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insane that he actually wants Ukraine to lose. "I want them to win but that's v unlikely", that's fair, and was like my position four days ago

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Russia is going to be pushed back to post-2014 borders in 2 months and they'll still be saying Ukraine can't win and will be demanding they negotiate a peace treaty with Russia giving away the Donbass and Crimea. I think after Russia lost Battle of Kyiv it was over for them.

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I hope you're right but that seems optimistic :(

in two months

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There's 1 significant urban area left in Kharkiv / Luhansk outside the post-2014 borders: Sievierodonetsk. Ukraine cut off the rail line used to supply it from Belgorod already. Probably going to have it in days. Russia also just gave them more heavy weapons than the west has.

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They're slowly winning in Kherson against Russia's best troops. It only looks like they aren't when you compare to Russia rapidly routing in Kharkiv. Russia can't really supply them. They also can't take 99% of heavy weapons with them when they eventually retreat from Kherson.

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Ukraine is mobilized. They have millions of people to arm. They'll get more and more weapons from the west. They haven't even been given the long range HIMARS/M270 missiles, western tanks, etc. let alone a bunch of F-16s and A-10s. If Russia isn't going to use nukes they're done.

4:12 AM · Sep 12, 2022Twitter Web App

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US spent so much money on defense spending after Cold War. They have hundreds of HIMARS, M270s, etc. and those were barely even considered notable since their approach is air power, not artillery. They gave Ukraine 16. US prepared to fight a Russia that doesn't actually exist.