Conversation

Hanania's most recent tweet about Ukraine. The article argues that Ukraine's ambitions of taking Izium are delusional.

Quote Tweet

These reads like a pro-Russian cope, but the analyst is knowledgeable and makes some sensible points, worth a follow. bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-coun

Replying to

Ironically, I think he's been making the critical mistake of conflating what he wants to happen with what is happening.

Replying to

insane that he actually wants Ukraine to lose. "I want them to win but that's v unlikely", that's fair, and was like my position four days ago

Replying to

and

Russia is going to be pushed back to post-2014 borders in 2 months and they'll still be saying Ukraine can't win and will be demanding they negotiate a peace treaty with Russia giving away the Donbass and Crimea. I think after Russia lost Battle of Kyiv it was over for them.

3:51 AM · Sep 12, 2022Twitter Web App

Replying to

and

I hope you're right but that seems optimistic :(

in two months

Replying to

and

There's 1 significant urban area left in Kharkiv / Luhansk outside the post-2014 borders: Sievierodonetsk. Ukraine cut off the rail line used to supply it from Belgorod already. Probably going to have it in days. Russia also just gave them more heavy weapons than the west has.

Show replies

Replying to

and

Russia wanted to annex at least half of Ukraine and install a puppet government. They already lost. The best they could do is maintain the frozen conflict from 2014 with more territory occupied. Don't even see how Russia can keep Crimea. Ukraine just has to blow up 1 bridge.

Replying to

and

I hope you're right.